Deputy President William Ruto is maintaining a 12 percent lead over rival presidential aspirant Raila Odinga, according to the latest Radio Africa monthly opinion poll.
According to the survey, 47.1 percent of respondents say they would vote for Ruto if the presidential election were held today, compared to 35.1 percent for Raila Odinga.
Other potential presidential contenders appear to be a long way off, according to the poll. Kalonzo Musyoka has 1.5 percent support; Musalia Mudavadi 1.1 percent support; and ‘Others’ 1.9 percent.
Another 7.8 per cent were undecided while 2.8 percent said they would not vote and 2.4 percent refused to answer.
In recent months Raila has been closing the gap on Ruto but now his growth in support seems to have reached a plateau. In January he had the same 35.1 percent support as February, up from 28.6 percent in November and 14.2 percent in January.
Ruto’s lead has been relatively steady with 46.1 percent in January, 45.6 percent in November and 42.7 percent in July.
The Radio Africa survey of 3,152 respondents was conducted by computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) between February 1 and 5 across all 47 counties. It carries a 1.75 percent margin of error.
Regional support will be vital in determining the result of the August 9 presidential election, the poll shows. Ruto has 57.1 percent support in vote-rich Central compared to 27.0 percent for Raila with another 8.8 percent undecided.
There are regional shifts between the January and February polls with Raila gaining in Central (1.9 percent), Coast (4.7 percent) and Western (4.9 percent) with Ruto gaining in North Eastern (7.4 percent), North Rift (14.8 percent) and Nyanza (6.7 percent).
Another research firm also puts Ruto ahead of Odinga.
If elections were held today, Kenya’s Deputy President William Ruto will be the leading candidate at 38 per cent, forcing a run-off between him and his closet challenger Raila Odinga, polled at 27 percent.
This is according to an opinion poll by Trends & Insights for Africa (Tifa), which was released Thursday, February 17.
To secure a first-round win, a presidential candidate should garner at least 50 percent of the total votes, as well as 25 percent in at least 24 of Kenya’s 47 counties.
The poll shows that many Kenyans are still undecided, currently at 20 percent, offering a chance for any of the two leading candidates to topple the other.
In the poll, Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka comes third at two per cent.
Funded by Tifa, the survey was conducted between February 3-9, and sampled 1,541 respondents in the eight former provinces, and had a 2.49 percent margin of error.
